David Merriman (Director of Research at Project Blue)

• Presented on detachment from the Chinese rare earth market and how this detachment will impact the global energy transition. 

• Anticipates a demand surge of 140,000 tons for NdFeB by 2035. 

• Primary drivers: automotive sector (ranking first) and wind energy (second), while other demand (such as: robotics, consumer electronics, and energy savings) are expected to remain steady. 

• Believes that the energy transition in the United States, Europe, and the non-Chinese ROW would experience significant disruptions as well as slow down if there was a complete detachment from the Chinese rare earth industry. 

• Considers it unrealistic to expect the total replacement of Chinese production at several stages of the rare earth element supply chain. In order to successfully detach from China, the process must be partial and gradual at all stages of the supply chain and backed by policymakers.

Ross Embleton (Senior Analyst, Metals & Mining Rare Earths at Wood Mackenzie)

• Shed light on whether the demand for rare earth magnets will outstrip supply and what the impact will be on key energy transition applications. 

• Predicts that 1) there will be a significant increase in demand for magnetic material which will lead the way for rare earth products. 2) Transport electrification and offshore wind energy generation are projected to contribute to nearly half of the demand for magnets by the year 2035. 3) The market will also require new projects in order to meet demand growth as well as expand at existing producers and recycling capabilities.

Matt Zolnowski (Global Fellow at the Wilson Center and President of Greyfairs)

• Provided valuable insight into the national security perspective on rare earth elements.

• Explained the history of the Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement (DFARS) requirements and predicted that the new DFARS rule (252.225–7052) will have a profound impact on the global rare earth supply chain, leading to new United States Military products. 

• To date, the Department of Defense has invested over $450M in the rare earth element sector to facilitate domestic production which is concentrated  in NdFeB manufacture and L/HREO separation. 

• According to Zolonowski, “these investments are supported by changes in defense procurement that exclude Chinese and Russian REE material, from mine-to-magnet.” As a result, it is Greyfiar’s view that “these restrictions have not yet begun to “bite”, with more stringent compliance / audit requirements arriving with newly-let and modified defense contracts from January 2026.”